Support vector machine based electricity price forecasting for electricity markets utilising projected assessment of system adequacy data

Abstract

In this paper we present an analysis of the results of a study into wholesale (spot) electricity price forecasting with Support Vector Machines (SVM) utilising past price and demand data and Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (PASA) data. The forecasting accuracy was evaluated using Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), New South Wales regional data over the year 2002. The inclusion of PASA data shows little improvement in forecasting accuracy.