Determining a Project's Probability of Success

Abstract

OVERVIEW:Until now, there has been no reliable, commonly accepted method for determining the probability of success of individual technical projects. Over the past few years, an IRI subcommittee has developed a core set of “anchored scales” for determining these probabilities by combining the inputs from multiple individuals in a method that is both more efficient and more reliable than previous methods. The scales were developed with inputs from a cross-section of IRI member companies whose goal was to create a common platform that could be easily modified by individual companies. Consequently, practitioners can use these scales as a starting point to customize this tool to fit their own particular circumstances.