Potential of modal shift to rail transport: study on the projected effects on GHG emissions and transport volumes

Abstract

This report investigates the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential of a modal shift to rail. It covers both freight and passenger transport and focuses on medium- to long-distance transport. It includes an assessment of existing studies on overall modal shift potential, an assessment and extrapolation of illustrative case studies and an analysis of existing and future infrastructure capacity. The assessment of existing studies affirms that rail freight transport has a significant potential. Studies show that the maximum potential share of rail freight transport in the relevant market is in the range of 31-36 per cent, compared with 18 per cent today. This would imply that rail becomes the dominant transport mode for long-distance transport. While other studies have reported more limited effects, these have generally only considered isolated (policy) measures. To assess the extent to which the maximum potential can be indeed instrumented by government policy and supply-side measures would require investigation beyond the scope of the present study, however.