Estimation of Individual Crime Rates from Arrest Records

Abstract

Not all police agencies report arrests to the FBI; in 1976, arrests were reported for an estimated population of 175,499,000, or 82.6 percent of the estimated total population of 212,420,000 in 1976.The arrest rates per population each age are estimated from the ratio of reported arrests to 82.6 percent of the total population in each age group.This amounts to an assumption that the age distribution of the population in the jurisdictions reporting to the FBI is essentially the same as the age distribution of the total population in 1976.and the apprehension process.The estimates of individual crime rates derived here from arrest histories then will be compared to estimates generated from the analysis of self-reports. PRIOR RESEARCH ON CRIMINAL CAREERSPrior research on criminal careers is largely limited to case studies and biographical or autobiographical sketches which can not be considered characterizations of the typical offender. 4 The major exceptions are the Gluecks' longitudinal studies of criminal careers in the 1920's s and the Wolfgang study of delinquency in a birth cohort. 6 Another ' Some of the classics among these studies are E.