Voprosy Ekonomiki · 2007 · 170 citations · 0 references
Social SciencesBusiness EconomicsEconomicsEconometricsForecastingMacroeconomicsBusiness CyclesDynamic Economic ModelsEconomic AnalysisEconomic DynamicsEconomic ForecastingTime Series EconometricsData Analysis In EconomicsEconometric Forecast ModelsEconometric Forecasting ModelsForecasting Business CyclesKeynesian Economics
The article written by the classic of economic science in 1939, which is published in Russian for the first time, contains a critique of the application of econometric methods in economics. The object of criticism is one of the first large-scale econometric studies - the book by J. Tinbergen on business cycles. Keynes points at the arbitrariness of many econometric judgments, at the problems of causality and forecast in econometrics. He also mentions that a lot of economic problems cannot be analyzed by means of econometric technique.