Systematic Analysis of Rebound Effects for 'Greening by ICT' Initiatives

Abstract

The application of ICT can lead to considerable reductions in the energy consumption of society. Although ICT itself consumes energy, there are many good reasons to explore the possibilities of 'green ICT'. After decades of experiments and research, ICTs designed to be 'green' still holds the promise of leading to substantial ecological benefits by means of dematerialisation, more efficient production processes and changed (more sustainable) human behaviour. Up till now, the effects of ICT on energy consumption are much less straightforward due to rebound effects: effects that have a negative influence on the intended positive effect. In parallel, rebound effects themselves have in turn other side effects as well, so there are many interacting effects to account for, greatly adding to complexity of the discussion. Despite evidence that suggests otherwise, initiatives that focus on 'greening by ICT' do notaccount for a consistent analysis of these rebound effects. This paper proposes an approach that enables to map and analyze these rebound effects systematically. This approach is applied in two related cases, teleworking and the use of Smart Working Centres. The Rapid Assessment Program (RAP) is used as a simulation model to identify which chains of effects are most interesting to consider for intervention. The application in the two cases demonstrates that rebound effects can by structured and that the RAP is a very suitable way to do so and provides a good assessment of net sustainability effects.