The ShakeOut Scenario

Abstract

The ShakeOut Scenario was created through a major collaborative effort involving more than 300 contributors. Our goal was to engage the full range of expertise needed to understand the complex interactions and to include experts and professionals from the public and private sectors, some who could share experience gained in previous earthquakes and others who understood the strengths and weaknesses of our systems. One challenge was to make collaborative use of this wide range of expertise, while integrating findings into a coherent result that could be delivered in time for the 2008 Golden Guardian planning meeting on May 5, 2008. Through this trial-by-fire process we have created a blueprint for future scenario efforts regarding earthquakes and other natural disasters. There is widespread recognition that now is the time to make such efforts.