TRENDS IN THE ACCURACY OF USDA PRODUCTION FORECASTS FOR BEEF AND PORK

Abstract

Trends in the accuracy of USDA forecasts of beef and pork production and supply are evaluated. The USDA forecasts underestimated production and supply in the 1980s, but this bias has now disappeared. The variance of forecasts has also declined. Thus, the accuracy of the forecasts has improved. The most recent forecasts meet the criteria of optimal forecasts while the forecasts of the 1980s were not optimal.