Application of a POT model to estimate the extreme significant wave height levels around the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean)

Abstract

CaÑellas, B., Orfila, A., Méndez, F.J., Menéndez, M., GÓmez-pujol, L. and Tintoré, J., 2007. Application of a POT model to estimate the extreme significant wave height levels around the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean). Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the 9th International Coastal Symposium), 329 – 333. Gold Coast, Australia, ISSN 0749.0208 Extreme value wave climate analysis at a particular site requires predicting long-term wave height levels from short duration records. In the present work we used the Peak Over Threshold (POT) model, assuming the frequency as a Poisson process and the intensity to be Pareto distributed, to characterise the spatial variability of the long-term extreme value wave climate along the Balearic Sea. Wave data used is part of the HIPOCAS database, a 44-years high resolution, spatial and temporal, wave hindcast covering an area between 38°N-42°N and 1°W-6°E, of the western Mediterranean Sea. The use of data from a homogeneous grid, instead of a single location wave data record, allows describing the spatial variability of the long-term extreme wave height levels over the whole Balearic basin. Results show that extreme values for a 50-year return period level around 11 m are found in the north sector of the Balearic Islands while in the southern part much lower extreme values are found, due to the shadow effect of the islands under severe north-eastern storms.