Conspiracy Theories and the Paranoid Style(s) of Mass Opinion

TLDR

Conspiracy theories have long been part of American political culture, yet no systematic study has examined their mass public support. The authors used four nationally representative surveys from 2006 to 2011 to assess how many Americans endorse conspiracy theories and how these beliefs vary ideologically and anomically. Half of Americans consistently endorse at least one conspiracy theory, and support is linked to a general belief in unseen intentional forces and a preference for Manichean narratives, rather than authoritarianism, ignorance, or conservatism.

Abstract

Although conspiracy theories have long been a staple of American political culture, no research has systematically examined the nature of their support in the mass public. Using four nationally representative surveys, sampled between 2006 and 2011, we find that half of the American public consistently endorses at least one conspiracy theory and that many popular conspiracy theories are differentiated along ideological and anomic dimensions. In contrast with many theoretical speculations, we do not find conspiracism to be a product of greater authoritarianism, ignorance, or political conservatism. Rather, the likelihood of supporting conspiracy theories is strongly predicted by a willingness to believe in other unseen, intentional forces and an attraction to Manichean narratives. These findings both demonstrate the widespread allure of conspiracy theories as political explanations and offer new perspectives on the forces that shape mass opinion and American political culture.