FVS and global Warming: A prospectus for future development

Abstract

Climate change-global warming and changes in precipitation-will cause changes in tree growth rates, mortality rates, the distribution of tree species, competition, and species interactions. An implicit assumption in FVS is that site quality will remain the same as it was during the time period observations used to calibrate the component models were made and that the site quality will not be affected by climate change. This paper presents evidence of the impacts of climate change on forests and argues that FVS needs to be revised to account for these changes. The changes include modification of the growth, mortality, and regeneration establishment models, all of which need to account for changes in site quality and genetic adaptation. Criteria for modifying the model recognize that the model’s applications and uses will not diminish and need to be supported. The new process, climate change, needs to be recognized by the model because it influences all of the processes FVS currently represents. Plans are being made to address this major task.