Transition pathways to fully automated driving and its implications for the sociotechnical system of automobility

TLDR

Fully automated road vehicles are gaining attention as a technology that could radically transform mobility, yet their implications are mainly discussed from a technological perspective, and uncertainty remains about how the transition will unfold within the broader automobility system. The study examines three sociotechnical transition scenarios—evolution, revolution, and transformation—to explore how automated driving might unfold. The authors extrapolate these scenarios using current technical, economic, infrastructural, spatial, and transport developments, then analyze their consequences for the transport system and mobility concepts.

Abstract

The advent of fully automated road vehicles is a topic currently getting attention in the field of transport as well as futures research: the technology is assumed to radically change the way we move in the future as well as to expand and differentiate existing mobility concepts. Still, the implications of automated driving are first and foremost discussed from a technological point of view and uncertainty about how this transition might take place remains. The embedding in the system of automobility respectively the transport system as a whole, currently lacks analytical as well as empirical examination. In our paper, we will discuss the topic in relation to three possible sociotechnical transition scenarios: (1) evolution, (2) revolution and (3) transformation. We will extrapolate different scenarios of automated driving based on current technical, economic, infrastructural, spatial, and transport developments and discuss its consequences for the transport system and mobility concepts.