Supply Chain Disruption by Avian flu Pandemic for U.S. Companies: A Case Study

Abstract

Using system dynamics methodology, the authors quantify the impact an avian flu pandemic could inflict on cumulative sales of global supply chains for two contrasting business operations: a large retailer and a large computer manufacturer. The authors point out that U.S. companies have been outsourcing work and developing supplier bases in countries that make supply chains more vulnerable to pandemic disease. They provide closed-loop influence diagrams of the avian flu pandemic on both types of organizations. Their research suggests companies should create business continuity plans to lessen the impact of a decreased work force as well as supply chain disruption, and they should review insurance policies to determine coverage in the event of an epidemic.