Gravity Model of Turkish Agricultural Exports to the European Union

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of Turkish agricultural exports to the European Union (EU) by estimating the gravity model for the panel of 23 trading partners in the EU covering the period 1996-2004. We find that Turkish agricultural exports to the EU are positively correlated with the size of the economy, the importer population, the Turkish population living in the EU countries, the non-Mediterranean climatic environment, and the membership to the EU-Turkey Customs Union Agreement while they are negatively correlated with agricultural arable land of the EU countries and geographical distance between Turkey and the EU countries. This paper was presented at the 18th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association, May 22, 2008, meeting at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.Keywords: Gravity model, panel data, Turkish agricultural exports, the EU. JEL Classification: C23, F14.