1c:I[776865,["/_next/static/chunks/bb923814e1f4d2e9.js","/_next/static/chunks/dd3ee9f5b7716ca6.js","/_next/static/chunks/4204a0ae82542ca8.js","/_next/static/chunks/1270dead247da766.js","/_next/static/chunks/6e1aa89a642f40be.js","/_next/static/chunks/2d7aa753e81324a8.js","/_next/static/chunks/8ffd0b71567920d8.js","/_next/static/chunks/67ea6dfd21f16c5f.js","/_next/static/chunks/24eb4379f68013fd.js","/_next/static/chunks/b8cd775ffdf935bd.js","/_next/static/chunks/983103cd9eb7b428.js","/_next/static/chunks/263f2cdcb9aa2341.js","/_next/static/chunks/294b9525248c8e5f.js"],"Grid"] 1d:I[617291,["/_next/static/chunks/bb923814e1f4d2e9.js","/_next/static/chunks/dd3ee9f5b7716ca6.js","/_next/static/chunks/4204a0ae82542ca8.js","/_next/static/chunks/1270dead247da766.js","/_next/static/chunks/6e1aa89a642f40be.js","/_next/static/chunks/2d7aa753e81324a8.js","/_next/static/chunks/8ffd0b71567920d8.js","/_next/static/chunks/67ea6dfd21f16c5f.js","/_next/static/chunks/24eb4379f68013fd.js","/_next/static/chunks/b8cd775ffdf935bd.js","/_next/static/chunks/983103cd9eb7b428.js","/_next/static/chunks/263f2cdcb9aa2341.js","/_next/static/chunks/294b9525248c8e5f.js"],"GridCol"] 1e:I[734616,["/_next/static/chunks/bb923814e1f4d2e9.js","/_next/static/chunks/dd3ee9f5b7716ca6.js","/_next/static/chunks/4204a0ae82542ca8.js","/_next/static/chunks/1270dead247da766.js","/_next/static/chunks/6e1aa89a642f40be.js","/_next/static/chunks/2d7aa753e81324a8.js","/_next/static/chunks/8ffd0b71567920d8.js","/_next/static/chunks/67ea6dfd21f16c5f.js","/_next/static/chunks/24eb4379f68013fd.js","/_next/static/chunks/b8cd775ffdf935bd.js","/_next/static/chunks/983103cd9eb7b428.js","/_next/static/chunks/263f2cdcb9aa2341.js","/_next/static/chunks/294b9525248c8e5f.js"],"Avatar"] 1f:I[432972,["/_next/static/chunks/bb923814e1f4d2e9.js","/_next/static/chunks/dd3ee9f5b7716ca6.js","/_next/static/chunks/4204a0ae82542ca8.js","/_next/static/chunks/1270dead247da766.js","/_next/static/chunks/6e1aa89a642f40be.js","/_next/static/chunks/2d7aa753e81324a8.js","/_next/static/chunks/8ffd0b71567920d8.js","/_next/static/chunks/67ea6dfd21f16c5f.js","/_next/static/chunks/24eb4379f68013fd.js","/_next/static/chunks/b8cd775ffdf935bd.js","/_next/static/chunks/983103cd9eb7b428.js","/_next/static/chunks/263f2cdcb9aa2341.js","/_next/static/chunks/294b9525248c8e5f.js"],"default"] 20:T528,Accurate estimates of CO₂ emissions from anthropogenic land-use change (E_LUC) and of the natural terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) are crucial to precisely know how much CO₂ can still be emitted to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. In current carbon budgets, E_LUC and S_LAND stem from two model families that differ in how CO₂ fluxes are attributed to environmental and land-use changes, making their estimates conceptually inconsistent. Here we provide consistent estimates of E_LUC and S_LAND by integrating environmental effects on land carbon into a spatially explicit bookkeeping model. We find that state-of-the-art process-based models overestimate S_LAND by 23% (min: 8%, max: 33%) in 2012-2021, as they include hypothetical sinks that in reality are lost through historical ecosystem degradation. Additionally, E_LUC increases by 14% (8%, 23%) in 2012-2021 when considering environmental effects. Altogether, we find a weaker net land sink, which makes reaching carbon neutrality even more ambitious. These results highlight that a consistent estimation of terrestrial carbon fluxes is essential to assess the progress of net-zero emission commitments and the remaining carbon budget.

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