Endocrine-resistant, hormone receptor-positive, and HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) is largely governed by acquired mutations in the estrogen receptor, which promote ligand-independent activation, and by truncal alterations in the PI3K signaling pathway, with a broader range of gene alterations occurring with less prevalence. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based technologies are progressively permeating the clinical setting. However, their utility for serial monitoring has been hindered by their significant costs, inter-technique variability, and real-world patient heterogeneity. We interrogated a longitudinal collection of 180 plasma samples from 75 HR+/HER2- mBC patients who progressed or relapsed after exposure to aromatase inhibitors and were subsequently treated with endocrine therapy (ET) by means of highly sensitive and affordable digital PCR and SafeSEQ sequencing. Baseline PIK3CA and TP53 mutations were prognostic of a shorter progression-free survival in our population. Mutant PIK3CA was prognostic in the subset of patients receiving fulvestrant monotherapy after progression to a CDK4/6 inhibitor (CDK4/6i)-containing regimen, and its suppression was predictive in a case of long-term benefit with alpelisib. Mutant ESR1 was prognostic in patients who did not receive concurrent CDK4/6i, an impact influenced by the variant allele frequency, and its early suppression was strongly predictive of efficacy and associated with long-term benefit in the whole cohort. Mutations in ESR1, TP53, and KRAS emerged as putative drivers of acquired resistance. These findings collectively contribute to the characterization of longitudinal ctDNA in real-world cases of HR+/HER2- mBC previously exposed to aromatase inhibitors and support ongoing studies either targeting actionable alterations or leveraging the ultra-sensitive tracking of ctDNA.

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